
Zogby today has John McCain down by 10%, showing an 8% negative McCain move in a week. Battleground has McCain down by 2%, showing a 10% positive move for McCain in a week. AP has McCain down by 1%, showing a 6% positive move for McCain in a week. IBD has Obama losing 2.3% in a day.
Polls are weighted for voter turn out anywhere from +4 Democrat (the historical norm) to +12 Democrat (a wild hopey-changey pipe dream).
Real Clear Politics shows polls, all taken in the same time frame, with an Obama lead between 1% and 14%. They purport to create an average from these polls. That’s not an average. That’s a guess. And a bad guess, at that.
Margins of error are generally 3%, meaning each candidate can be at +3% or -3% of his stated support level. In these polls, a 6% gap is a statistical tie.
Not since Dewey defeated Truman on the front page of the Chicago Tribune have polls been so entirely useless.
Pollsters don’t know how to measure the Palin effect. They don’t know how to measure the ACORN effect. They don’t know how to measure the Bradley effect. They don’t know how to measure the Young Voter effect. They don’t know how to measure anything about the people they talk to on the telephone.
I am a poll addict. This year’s polls are my methadone.