PPP: Christie Up In NJ, Hoffman Rout In NY-23

Public Policy Polling, ranked by the Wall Street Journal as one of the most accurate swing-state polling outfits in the aftermath of the 2008 election, released polls Sunday night showing good news for conservatives in New York, New Jersey and Virginia.

Their polling in the New Jersey Governor’s race shows Republican Chris Christie with a 6% lead over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine.  The unpopular Corzine, closely aligned with the flagging Obama administration, had been closing the gap in recent weeks, but the most recent data shows Christie pulling away in the race’s final days.

Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in PPP’s final poll of the New Jersey Governor’s race, with Chris Daggett at 11%.


Christie’s advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett’s support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine’s 72% of Democrats.

As the campaign concludes it seems like Daggett’s presence in the race has actually ended up hurting Corzine more than Christie, contrary to the earlier conventional wisdom. 45% of Daggett voters say the incumbent is their second choice to 36% for the challenger. Daggett’s backers report having voted for Barack Obama by a 67-23 margin last year.

In New York’s hotly contested 23rd Congressional District race, the withdrawl of ultra-liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava and her subsequent endorsement of the Democrat has tightened the race a bit, but has not been enough to stem the tidal wave of support for Conservative party candidate Hoffman.

In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens Hoffman holds a 54-38 advantage.

PPP goes on to describe the different results during different segments of the tumultuous weekend.

The bottom line though is that Hoffman led by double digits during every segment of the poll, an indication that he may have been headed for a definitive victory regardless of Scozzafava’s actions over the course of the weekend.

PPP shows the Virginia Governor’s race will be a full-on Republican rout, which is a huge embarrassment for the Obama administration in its own back yard.

Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds 56-42 in PPP’s final poll of the race.

In a finding that may sum up what happened here 63% of voters in the state think McDonnell made a strong case for why he should be Governor while only 34% said the same of Deeds. Even 36% of Deeds’ supporters said he hadn’t made a good argument for why he should be elected.