An analysis of swing state voter registration data done by Bloomberg shows that voters are fleeing the Democrat party in startling numbers.
The turnout advantage for Democrats over Republicans in 2008, the year when they were all energized to elect Barack Obama and probably the best they’ll ever do, was 7%. Recent polling, like yesterday’s flawed ABC/Washington Post poll that showed Romney and Obama tied at 47%, inexplicably give Democrats a 9% advantage, more than in even that historic year.
But with voters fleeing the Democrat Party and becoming Independent, that turnout advantage will shrink below 7%, not grow to 9%.
The collective total of independents grew by about 443,000 in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina since the 2008 election, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from state election officials.
During the same time, Democrats saw a net decline of about 480,000 in those six states, while Republicans — boosted in part by a competitive primary earlier this year — added roughly 38,000 voters in them, the analysis shows.
Even more exciting, yesterday’s poll shows that among Independent swing state voters, the precise group that this unprecedented Democrat voter registration exodus is creating more of, Romney beats Obama by 14%.
While most Americans continue to disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy, that’s not his only problem. More than half fault him on health care and immigration as well. Sixty-three percent say the country’s headed in the wrong direction, an unhelpful view for an incumbent. And among groups, he’s losing swing-voting independents by a record 14 percentage points.
Obama won Independents by 52%-48% in 2008. Now he’s losing the group in swing states by 14%.